One election.
Five perspectives.
The seats in play. Your family’s picks. The polling picture.
Explore the race for the Senate, one state at a time.
Every seat. Every race.
Ballot-listed candidates, Siena polls, and expected winners where polling is unavailable. Write-in candidates excluded.
| State / seat held by | Candidates party · poll share where available | Poll / expectation source and date | Shaurya’s pick | Shipra’s pick |
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A snapshot, not a crystal ball.
The fourth map uses the leader of the most recent verified Siena release. Where no verified Siena poll is available, it assumes the nominee of the party favored by Cook Political Report’s October 30 ratings wins. These states have striped fills and an “expected” label in the table. This is our scenario using those ratings, not a Cook prediction for each candidate. Tied polls and unrated or toss-up races without polls stay uncalled.
How to read this dashboard
Map 1 colors the party holding the specific seat on the ballot, not the state’s entire delegation. Florida and Ohio are special elections. Personal picks start blank and save in this browser only.
Simulator: Each button press draws a new election from the same October 31 snapshot. For polled races, the model starts from the margin between the two highest-polling candidates. Without a poll, it assigns an illustrative margin of 20 points for Solid ratings, 10 for Likely, 5 for Lean, or 0 for Toss-up, toward the favored party. It adds a shared national shift (normal distribution, standard deviation 3 points) and a separate state shift (standard deviation 4 points). The candidate with the resulting positive margin wins. These are our modeling assumptions, not Siena or Cook win probabilities, and are not calibrated forecasts.
The simulator models two contenders per race. In unpolled races these are the Democratic and Republican nominees; in Idaho and South Dakota the Republican faces Todd Achilles and Brian Bengs respectively. Polled Nebraska includes independent Dan Osborn. The common shift moves the main non-Republican contenders together. Ranked-choice transfers, runoffs, third-party upsets, turnout, and stale-poll uncertainty are not modeled. A simulated winner represents the eventual seat outcome. Click any state on map 5 to inspect the winner.
Full-chamber totals include 65 seats not up for election: 31 Republican and 34 Democratic-aligned, including 2 independents. Other predicted winners are counted separately; no new independent’s caucus is assumed. A 50–50 Senate is subject to the vice president’s tie-breaking vote.
Poll shares are rounded, are not win probabilities, and may not total 100%. Close leads can fall within polling error. Dates shown are release dates; source links provide fieldwork and methodology. Alaska’s ranked-choice result cannot be inferred with certainty from first-choice polling.
This is a manually verified October 31 snapshot, not a live feed. Sources: Ballotpedia race directory ↗, Siena Research Institute ↗, Cook Senate ratings · October 30 ↗. Map geometry: US Atlas.